AFL: Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats

Hawthorn are 0-3 and are up against a hot 3-0 Geelong side. Hard to see Geelong losing this one despite how desperate Hawthorn will be. I really love the total on offer however. Total is at 190.5-191.5 at present but if you can get a doubles market, you can get the original total of 188.5 and I'm going to take that with Geelong M/L. Past 5 H2H matches have averaged 190.4 points. Hawthorn opening 3 games have averaged 200.3 points while Geelong opening 3 games have averaged 211.3 points. If Hawthorn conceded 139 points to the Gold Coast Suns, there is no hope in hell they'll be able to contain this Geelong midfield. Hawthorn also only scored 53 but at home and being the standalone game I'll expect them to be offensively better. I don't expect them to concede 139 but I do think they'll score enough to get this game OVER the total. At odds of 2.50 (which I think are GREAT odds) I'm taking Geelong at the M/L and the OVER. Really like this play.

My Recommended Play: Geelong / OVER 188.5 LOSER

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